June 25, 2011
Most investors next week will undoubtedly be looking forward to the long July Fourth holiday weekend. Everyone could use a breather after weeks of bad economic news and stock market losses. Nevertheless, a good bit of economic data will be released. The ISM Manufacturing Index for June is due Friday and it may be the most significant report all week. The ISM index is the most widely watched factory report and it follows closely in the wake of disappointing regional manufacturing data. Economists expect the index to fall to 51.8 in June from 53.5 in May. For months manufacturing had been a lone bright spot on an otherwise grim economic landscape. But that may be changing; the regional data was impacted by bad weather across many regions of the U.S. — notably tornadoes and flooding in the Midwest — which disrupted supply chains. Three Federal Reserve District Bank surveys of manufacturing are due ahead of the ISM report and they should give a preview of what’s to come on a national scale. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook is due Monday and it may offer the most optimistic view. The Richmond Fed’s Survey of Manufacturing is due Tuesday and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey is due Thursday. The Chicago Purchasing Managers index, used to gauge demand for goods made in factories, is due on Thursday. Consumer spending and personal income data for May are due on Monday. Meanwhile, more bad news is expected from the housing sector. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April is due Tuesday and the numbers are expected to show a continued decline in home values. Pending home sale data for May is due Wednesday. The U.S. housing sector has been just as stubborn as the labor market in its refusal to participate in a recovery. Consumer confidence has been rocked as homeowners see the value of their homes decline and with it the equity that provided a cushion against financial emergencies. Speaking of consumer confidence, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released Tuesday and the final take on the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due Friday. The only hope for an increase in these indexes stems from a slight drop in gas prices as oil prices have dipped in recent weeks to around $90 a barrel from over $110 a barrel in the spring. Car makers on Friday will release figures on June sales of North America-produced motor vehicles. See the original post: Week Ahead: Lots of Data Ahead of July 4th Holiday
Read the full article →
May 21, 2011
Data related to housing, consumer confidence and economic growth will all be eyed next week by investors looking for signs that the U.S. economy is strengthening. The housing sector has been especially slow to rebound after the worst financial downturn in the U.S. since the Great Depression. Analysts believe a full-fledged recovery won’t occur until the housing market hits a bottom. All signs seem to indicate that that hasn’t happened yet. Sales of new single-family homes in April will be released on Tuesday. These homes are competing with a surplus of existing homes put on the market due to record foreclosures . Housing experts say buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall further, which is good for individual buyers but bad for the nation’s housing market. The March S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released on Tuesday and HFA House Price Index on Wednesday. Both indexes are expected to show that home values are still falling. The National Association of Realtor’s Pending Home Sales Index for April is due Friday. Economists are expecting slight improvements at best. In the Northeast, rainy and unseasonably cold weather has cut into sales. On Wednesday home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) is expected to report its quarterly earnings and those figures will certainly have an impact on the broader markets. Meanwhile, on Tuesday two Congressional committees will hold hearings important to U.S. consumers. A Senate committee will discuss the future of the housing finance system, and a House committee will hold a hearing on domestic oil and gas production. The second estimate of first-quarter GDP is due Thursday. The preliminary report placed growth at 1.8%, but that number is expected to be revised higher as a result of an increase in consumer spending. Consumer spending comprises 70% of the U.S. economy. April personal income and spending reports are due Friday and are expected to show that incomes rose modestly, while spending was slightly higher. Consumer spending rose in no small part due to increased costs tied to soaring food and energy prices. Final readings for consumer confidence in May are due Tuesday from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and on Friday for the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Earlier readings showed improved confidence as labor markets seemed to be gaining traction earlier this spring. But revisions my inch downward as higher gas and food prices eat into consumers’ pocketbooks. Among the bellwether companies reporting earnings next week are:
Read the full article →
