outlook

Most investors next week will undoubtedly be looking forward to the long July Fourth holiday weekend. Everyone could use a breather after weeks of bad economic news and stock market losses. Nevertheless, a good bit of economic data will be released. The ISM Manufacturing Index for June is due Friday and it may be the most significant report all week. The ISM index is the most widely watched factory report and it follows closely in the wake of disappointing regional manufacturing data. Economists expect the index to fall to 51.8 in June from 53.5 in May. For months manufacturing had been a lone bright spot on an otherwise grim economic landscape. But that may be changing; the regional data was impacted by bad weather across many regions of the U.S. — notably tornadoes and flooding in the Midwest — which disrupted supply chains. Three Federal Reserve District Bank surveys of manufacturing are due ahead of the ISM report and they should give a preview of what’s to come on a national scale. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook is due Monday and it may offer the most optimistic view. The Richmond Fed’s Survey of Manufacturing is due Tuesday and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey is due Thursday. The Chicago Purchasing Managers index, used to gauge demand for goods made in factories, is due on Thursday. Consumer spending and personal income data for May are due on Monday. Meanwhile, more bad news is expected from the housing sector. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April is due Tuesday and the numbers are expected to show a continued decline in home values. Pending home sale data for May is due Wednesday. The U.S. housing sector has been just as stubborn as the labor market in its refusal to participate in a recovery. Consumer confidence has been rocked as homeowners see the value of their homes decline and with it the equity that provided a cushion against financial emergencies. Speaking of consumer confidence, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released Tuesday and the final take on the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due Friday. The only hope for an increase in these indexes stems from a slight drop in gas prices as oil prices have dipped in recent weeks to around $90 a barrel from over $110 a barrel in the spring. Car makers on Friday will release figures on June sales of North America-produced motor vehicles. See the original post: Week Ahead: Lots of Data Ahead of July 4th Holiday