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government

Another Day, Another Housing Program

October 25, 2011

The Obama Administration is taking another crack at addressing a core problem hindering the economic recovery: underwater homeowners (that is, borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth) and the ripple-effects of that financial hardship. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced plans Monday to revamp the three-year-old Home Affordable Refinance Program [HARP] to allow more underwater borrowers to refinance. Ideally, qualified homeowners who have been consistently paying their mortgages would be able to refinance their loans at lower rates thereby staving off the threat of default and freeing up spending money for other purposes. Both outcomes would ostensibly help the economy, if the program works exactly as designed. But given HARP’s lackluster results in its first three years of existence, the new initiative has its share of skeptics. Anthony Sanders, a finance professor at George Mason University, said a “fundamental disconnect” exists between HARP’s goal of lowering monthly mortgage payments and the larger economic issues facing many Americans. “There’s no evidence that lowering a mortgage payment a few hundred dollars a month prevents defaults,” he said. “Giving $200 a month to people who already have a job doesn’t really make any sense.” Homeowners aren’t defaulting on their mortgages over a few hundred dollars, he said. They’re defaulting because they’ve lost their job and can’t find another one, or have suffered some other financial catastrophe. To open HARP up to more financially strapped homeowners, the FHFA has removed an earlier cap that disqualified borrowers whose mortgages were valued at 125% or more than the value of their homes. The program is open only to those borrowers whose loans are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , the troubled quasi-government entities that provide financing for an estimated 80% of all U.S. mortgages. (The government seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008 as they teetered on the verge of collapse.) “This is an appropriate balancing of risk that’s being borne by Fannie and Freddie, and hence the American taxpayer,” FHFA’s acting director, Edward DeMarco, said Monday during a conference call with reporters. “This will make HARP more available.” The Obama Administration claimed the original HARP program would help 5 million borrowers. But the actual number has been less than 900,000. The FHFA predicted Monday that by easing the restrictions on the old program and reducing some refinancing fees and streamlining the process as many as one million underwater homeowners could get help by 2013. Critics say it still barely makes a dent. In August, Corelogic, a housing research firm, said 11 million mortgages, or nearly 25% of all residential home loans, are underwater. The FHFA also hopes the revamped HARP gives banks with substantial mortgage portfolios additional incentives to participate. To that end, FHFA altered the program so that lenders won’t be forced to buy back HARP loans if underwriting problems are later discovered. Under the previous, tougher restrictions, banks had little incentive to refinance mortgages, said Leif Thomsen, CEO of Mortgage Master, a large Massachusetts home lender. Default rates haven’t reached critical mass for the big commercial banks, Thomsen explained, consequently they saw no reason to renegotiate a loan made at 6% interest down to 4%. Banks are, after all, in the business of making money by lending money, he noted. Besides, given the federal guidelines that capped underwater loans at 125% of the value of the property, many struggling homeowners couldn’t refinance anyway.  But lifting the cap should create strong competition for refinancing underwater loans, Thomsen predicted, a factor that could spark the big banks to renegotiate and refinance on their own or see all that refinancing business move to independent firms like Thomsen’s. “It’s about time that this program came out,” Thomsen said. “I’ve been calling for something like this for three years.” JPMorganChase (NYSE:JPM) is already on board, issuing a statement Monday in praise of the new HARP and saying it could save consumers as much as $2,500 a year. But Sanders said the program – and its creators – are still missing the point. “I think they’re making the assumption that everyone who saves money on a refinanced mortgage will spend it on consumer durables. But they might put it away in their savings account or put it aside for their kid’s college education, like they should have in the first place,” he said. Sanders said the government is essentially wasting its time on housing programs that he described as chronically “too small in scope” and off the mark in terms of targeting what’s really ailing the  U.S. economy. “The government needs to step out of the way and let the housing market heal itself,” he said. “Lack of jobs is what causing the problem right now.” See the original post here: Another Day, Another Housing Program

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Week Ahead: May Jobs Report Takes Center Stage

May 28, 2011

In a week shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, all eyes will be on the monthly employment report for May due on Friday. Economists expect May nonfarm payrolls to show an increase of about 200,000 and for the unemployment rate to drop slightly to 8.9% Stubbornly high unemployment has been a thorn in the side of the U.S. economic recovery. The high jobless rate bleeds into virtually every other facet of the economy, affecting consumer spending, which makes up 70% of the U.S. economy, and cutting into another long-suffering sector, housing. The modest improvements expected in the May numbers continue to confirm what economists said months ago — the economic recovery is going to be a long, slow slog. Other job-related economic indicators due next week include the ADP National Employment Report for May on Wednesday. Coming ahead of the government’s monthly job report, the ADP numbers frequently offer a preview of what’s likely to come. Also due on Wednesday is the Challenger report on layoff intentions for May. While hiring has been spotty for months as companies question whether the economy is strong enough to expand, the number of companies actually slashing payroll has fallen, according recent Challenger reports. That trend is expected to continue in May. Weather could play a role keeping weekly initial jobless claims at a high level. The report, due Thursday, could be impacted by the flooding of the Mississippi River and the tornadoes that have destroyed towns and wreaked havoc across the Midwest. Those natural disasters could impact jobless claims for several weeks to come. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for May is due Tuesday. Confidence is expected to have risen in May as political turmoil in Middle East has eased, lowering concerns for fuel shortages. Gasoline prices, soaring through most of the spring, leveled off ahead of the Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial kickoff of summer. “There is some relief for consumers and retailers, since gasoline prices started falling in the latter part of May after briefly crossing over and then dipping below the $4 per gallon mark. This has boosted consumer confidence and will help increase spending as we enter the summer season,” said IHS Global Insight economist Chris Christopher. Housing data in the form of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March is due Tuesday. Home values continue to decline due to bloated inventories. It’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy as buyers delay purchases, hoping prices will fall even further. And prices continue to fall. The severe weather could also affect economic reports due from the Institute for Supply Management, which will release its data for manufacturing and non-manufacturing on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Flooding and tornadoes around the country have disrupted supply chains, making it harder for factories to distribute their goods. See more here: Week Ahead: May Jobs Report Takes Center Stage

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Singapore Joins the Resort Fray

February 22, 2011

An affiliate of the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. is setting the stage for a potential battle with a group including hedge-fund firm Paulson & Co

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Chinese Central Bank’s Question-And-Answer Statement on Yuan Translation

February 16, 2011

By Bloomberg News June 20 (Bloomberg) — The following is a translation of portions of the question-and-answer-style statement on yuan exchange rate reform issued by the People’s Bank of China today. Is further yuan reform in China’s interests?

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Home Sales Probably Waned After Credit U.S. Economy Preview

February 16, 2011

By Shobhana Chandra June 20 (Bloomberg) — The housing market began to retrench in May after a government incentive ended, leaving manufacturing at the head of the U.S.

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Yuan Gain Limited to 1.9% This Year on Euro Drop, Survey Shows

February 16, 2011

By Bloomberg News June 20 (Bloomberg) — The yuan’s appreciation may be limited to 1.9 percent against the dollar this year as the euro’s slump hurts exporters, a survey of economists showed after China signaled an end to a two-year peg. The currency will probably climb to 6.7 per dollar by Dec

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Santos Seeks Landslide Win in Colombia as World Cup Keeps Voters at Home

February 16, 2011

By Helen Murphy June 20 (Bloomberg) — Colombians may hand a landslide victory today to presidential candidate Juan Manuel Santos , won over by his pledges to build on Alvaro Uribe ’s successes in boosting investment and beating back Marxist rebels.

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Home Sales in U.S. Probably Waned After Tax Credit as Manufacturing Grew

February 16, 2011

By Shobhana Chandra June 20 (Bloomberg) — The housing market began to retrench in May after a government incentive ended, leaving manufacturing at the head of the U.S. recovery, economists said reports this week will show

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Yuan Unshackled May Strengthen China’s Shift to Domestic Demand for Growth

February 16, 2011

By Bloomberg News June 21 (Bloomberg) — China’s signal of an end to the yuan’s fixed rate to the dollar may accelerate a shift toward domestic demand as the prime driver of growth as President Hu Jintao seeks to strengthen household incomes. The People’s Bank of China two day ago indicated it’s abandoning the 6.83 yuan peg to the dollar adopted during the global crisis to shield exporters. The central bank said while there’s no basis for “large scale” moves in the currency, the exchange rate will be allowed increased “flexibility.” A stronger yuan will boost the purchasing power of China’s households that have helped propel imports to a record level , and companies from Orient Paper Inc

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